Wednesday, May 27, 2009

74% of consumers age 64+ use e-mail on a regular basis which is 1% higher than teenagers

Another headline that grabbed my attention when I saw it was from a Pew Internet study. It said that 74% of consumers age 64+ use e-mail on a regular basis which was 1% higher than teenagers. My initial reaction was “wow” I didn’t think email was dying that quickly with teens. Do teenagers really view email as “so last generation?” My research shows that the phone and not the PC has become the core technology device for younger generations and with it texting has replaced some emails but it still seemed odd. The Pew Internet & American Life Project noted the same observation, “At the same time, email has lost some ground among teens.” But the real story was that the headline captured a percent of a percent (online Seniors using email) and this can quite often lead to inaccurate conclusions – more Seniors use email than teenagers – 74% to 73%. The real numbers are actually that twice as many teens use email as Seniors – 67% to 33% - but that is not much of a headline. As the graph indicates Senior’s are still way behind in getting online. This should continue to change as Boomers age because they have already adapted and will continue to adopt the Internet.

Fastest growing age demographic on Facebook is women over 55

I was a bit surprised when I saw that the fastest growing age demographic on Facebook is women over 55. As I am frequently when I see headlines that don’t seem to fit what I see in real life. Think about the women you know who are over 55 years old. Are they Facebook users? I couldn’t think of any who were. So I did a little digging and found my answer. A segment can show huge growth by going from 1 to 100 even if that isn't many in comparison to the whole population which turned out to be the case here. The graph shows the population which is perfectly aligned with Generational Expectations. Younger generations have already adopted Facebook and I do think Facebook may be a great adaptive example as Boomers find it useful for finding and keeping in touch with old friends and family. (I plan a blog entry on this very soon.)

50% of Kindle users are 50+ in age

A colleague with a lot of experience in the connected home space, Ken Stampe, made a comment on my Consumer Research, Technology and Generations entry regarding three headlines that seem to fly against the Generational Expectations perspective and I thought it would be best to bring those into the main discussion.

I think I need to clarify a bit. My perspective is not so much about specific generations, but that there are phases through which consumers move. In other words, Gen Yer’s are moving into the early stages of their adaptation experiences. They may look at Twitter and see a tool they can adapt to better text groups of friends, for example. So even though we know that the baseline set for Gen Y’s or Millennial’s is very technologically savvy, they will not continue to remain as open to embracing new technologies and change in general as they have been.

50% of Kindle users are 50+ in age


I really like the idea of Kindle although I can’t justify buying one myself. I think, so far at least, it is a tiny niche product. Cool and interesting? Sure, but adoption is limited and Amazon has been very quiet about sales. The headline that Ken referenced is pretty limited in accuracy by the approach - taking demographic info based on postings. So I can’t really suggest that the numbers are accurate. However, I think the comments about the posting do shed some light that support my perspective. Just to cite a couple that supported the skew to older consumers, several pointed out the ability to increase the font size for readability. While some of the other comments, perhaps made by young consumers, suggest the iPhone or even laptop as better alternatives. I think today’s Kindle could be a great “adaptive” technology example. Older consumers with sufficient funds and increased book consumption might be the core segment. That is until we see a generation that has an innate experience with e-books in their grade school classrooms and it becomes an expectation that books are in electronic format.

An "Eating" Kitchen Design

As discussed in my Cooking vs. Eating entry, there is a generational shift occurring within the kitchen. I was recently discussing a pilot we conducted with the Internet Home Alliance in 2003 with a colleague and how badly we missed the kitchen of the future. The pilot had many elements and most were focused on bringing technology to the cooking process – making mom’s tasks easier through technology. One of the elements that seemed like a great concept was the ability to control a Whirlpool Polara range from your cell phone. You could access your oven from your cell phone and program it to cook dinner. The Polara had the capability to be both a refrigerator and an oven so you could put dinner in the unit in the morning and go off about your day. This seemed like a great idea. Families were time-stressed and this could give them flexibility based on their day for dinner time. We thought connecting the oven via cell phone was critical, after all cell phones were becoming ubiquitous. The results were underwhelming for that part of the pilot. What we missed was the idea that the kitchen was changing its role and not simply in need of a technology facelift.

The part we had missed was the evolution of the kitchen, and eating itself, as a social activity with an entertainment quality. Cooking was no longer about working to prepare the family dinner in isolation but more about chatting with friends while whipping-up something on which to munch or multi-tasking to help the kids with homework while getting dinner pulled together. I found a great “Future Kitchen” design concept by Electrolux that really hits these elements. Here is an illustration of the Rendez-Vouz. As described in a cnet article, “The Rendez-vous table is designed with the idea in mind that the kitchen is a social gathering spot of the house. Large and meant for multitasking, the table is conceptualized as a wide-open induction cooktop that also would be able to power other appliances wirelessly. (Like this blender.) While the social activity of cooking and eating is highlighted, the table also would be programmed with a virtual chef, enabling cooks of all skill levels to enjoy the meal preparation. The result is a new area of the kitchen, perfect for cooking, eating, entertaining, and socializing.” Electrolux made a point that the technology behind this concept is available today so these could be not-too-distant designs.

There are a range of industries that need to be developing these concepts and products. The Rendez-Vouz would change kitchen designs dramatically affecting large and small appliances and cabinets. It will be interesting to see if these new systems can be controlled via cell phone – somehow I doubt it.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Google's PowerMeter needs data!

Google's PowerMeter weaknesses are finally being examined. As I described in my earlier post, smart meter data is the critical success factor for any energy management system. Unfortunately, smart meters are nowhere near ubiquitous and will not be for many, many years. The United Kingdom just made news by setting a 2020 target for smart meter deployment in all homes. This target is considered quite bold. Google is now more publicly acknowledging the lack of smart meter data problem.

In an interview at the Green:Net Conference, Google's Tom Sly claimed that "best-case" PowerMeter would be ready by the end of this year however he also indicated that they were working with device manufacturers, "to produce something that can mimic a smart meter to work with PowerMeter and give the consumer enough data to help them modify their behavior." As I predicted, requiring consumers to purchase a device to "mimic a smart meter" will greatly reduce the adoption of PowerMeter.

As for the second approach, getting household data from utility companies directly, well that too looks problematic. Earth2tech.com's Katie Fehrenbacher reports that, "Some utilities have indicated to us that they’ve been uncomfortable with the fact that Google is building software and web tools for energy management and smart meters called PowerMeter. In their eyes, Google’s strong brand could dominate their relationship with the customer." I believe this understates the really feelings of most utility companies.

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Google's knack for ruining business models

Google may be on the verge of ruining another business model. I have been in several meetings with companies struggling with the Google-effect on navigation and traffic. It is tough to compete with free. It appears they are preparing to do it yet again, this time in home energy management. Recently, Google announced and showed a few screenshots from a Google Labs application called PowerMeter. If you haven’t seen the screenshots, its function is to help consumer better manage their energy usage and, in the end, save money. In studies I have reviewed, most consumers will save from 5-10% simply by being made aware of their usage and making an effort to reduce. Another 15-30% of a reduction can be attained by more significant behavioral and structural changes such as weatherization and programmable thermostats. So the consumer benefit to PowerMeter is pretty clear.

Still, I was surprised to see the amount of positive press the relatively “meatless” announcement received. The reason for my surprise is that the critical element to the function of PowerMeter is the household energy data and although Google’s announcement indicated the participation of a few utility companies, widespread participation of energy companies is unlikely. My experience over the years with several energy providers is that they are not going to simply release the household data to anyone, even other departments in the same company and especially not Google. And if you can’t get the household data, then PowerMeter becomes useless. I did not find any of the reviews that pointed out this concern.

Are there other options outside the energy provider? Sure, there could be an inexpensive bridge from the meter to the internet. However, with the proliferation of different smart meters and various flavors of communication protocols a consumer purchased receiver seems complicated and unlikely. So what is Google thinking? Well, there may be method in Google’s madness – think smart grid net-neutrality where access to the data is regulated to be open and available to the consumer. In this scenario, consumers would have the right to monitor their own smart meter data even through a third party application. This seems entirely possible given that a great deal of tax-payer money is going to build the smart grid.

So what should an energy company do now? In the frequent advice of consultants before the Internet bubble burst, cannibalize or be eaten. The normally stodgy, regulated energy companies must think more like dot com companies. They must look at the entire energy spectrum and create a user friendly service that not only gives the consumer usage information but also helps them better manage their entire energy lifecycle. Energy companies can compete with Google. After all, they are the experts in energy consumption. Most energy companies can calculate the effects of replacing old appliances or refer consumers to reputable energy audit firms. Many of these services could be rolled into a monthly bill for easier affordability. There are a number of energy providers moving quickly to retain their customer relationships; Duke Energy, Florida Power & Light, and Austin Energy are shining examples. I am confident however, that many energy providers will not do so and I expect Google’s PowerMeter to be successful also. The time to build those customer service experiences is now.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Eating versus Cooking

One of the observations we made in defining Generational Expectations was the shift from cooking to eating. Although they accomplish the same outcome, they are very different perspectives. We observed the generational shift of predominantly moms, although this is changing as well, from Seniors' and older Boomers' view of cooking to feed their families to Gen X’s general lack of interest in cooking and increased reliance on restaurants and semi-prepared foods to Millennials' shifting view of eating as entertainment and a social experience.

The shift has fueled the explosion of restaurants and grocery aisle options and the coming effects will ripple through many industries. Kitchen designs, for example, will be questioned for the best use of space. Do I really need two ovens or a 30” range? How will Millennials redesign their kitchens to create an “eating out at home” social experience? Restaurants will need to view their business as part of a whole social relationship that includes, but is not limited to, eating a meal at a location. How will restaurants need to change to become better environments for friends and families to socialize and be entertained? The changes will be significant and faster than expected.

I was thrilled to see that someone gets it. Food Network has created a new channel called Food2. This new channel and online site is uniquely targeted at the 21-34 year old demographic. According to Food Network, they have observed an increase in their appeal to younger audiences. What I think is more interesting and insightful is that they conducted research and found that, consistent with our Generational Expectations observation, younger audiences want to experience food-related content in different ways. They found that, consistent with this generation’s baseline, they wanted shorter form non-linear content, more emphasis on experimental tastes and increased access to social and content sharing tools.

Food2 is described as "designed to be a social experience - just like food itself. It's the intersection of food, drink and pop culture." The announcement points to a heavy emphasis on integration with innate technologies, Facebook and Twitter, and featuring short videos with young culinary talent. They also launched original webisodes. Food2’s approach is “to live up to its goal of experiencing food through the eyes of Millennials.”

This a great example of a company recognizing a generational shift, researching it, and then designing an offering based on what they were told not what they thought they should offer. I wonder if the white goods, small appliance, restaurant, and packaged food companies are taking note of this shift. So far I haven’t seen any evidence they have moved from designing for my mother, maybe my wife but certainly not my daughter. What generation is your company listening to?

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Consumer Research, Technology and Generations

My colleagues and I have defined an observation that we have made while conducting a significant amount of consumer research over the past decade. We have been calling it "Generational Expectations." It existed long before we named it and will continue, probably forever. Basically, it is the reason we adults fail to understand kids behaviors and lament that they don't appreciate what they have. We are all a product of when we were born. Two factors have changed dramatically and make it more important to understand the effects at this point in time, especially for consumer product and service companies. First, the speed of change around us has accelerated significantly. And second, technology has become pervasive and influences most areas of our lives. Consumer product and service companies must now launch and maintain offerings in a far more challenging market place.

We identified three stages of life that consumers past through. The first is when a generation moves through their formative years from toddler through teenager. We call these experiences ‘innate’ as they establish each generation’s technology baseline. In their early twenties their personal baseline has been created. This baseline sets what each generation expects as a minimum or expected experience. For Boomers it was TV and phone service however for Millennials it is cell phones and the Internet.

Generations beyond this formative period, early twenties through late forties, must adapt to the new technology, often relearning or changing a familiar behavior. We call these experiences ‘adaptive.’ During the adaptive period, consumers are looking for the connection between what they do today and how a new technology could help. They then adapt their old behavior or habit to the new technology. As you would expect, the adaptation process is much slower than the uptake during the innate phase. Boomers learning to use email instead of snail mail or texting in place of a phone call are examples.

From early fifties to death, consumers begin to resist change, especially from technology, often being suspicious of the changes. To the extent they can, this age group will try to prevent new technologies from impacting their lives. We call these experiences ‘resistive.’ To the degree possible, this age group is comfortable with what they have and how they do things. They have been through many adaptations and are ready to enjoy life as it is with less disruption.

The reason we separate the three experiences, innate, adaptive, and resistive is that they shape how consumers view and adopt products and services. Much of the often hyped coverage of the differences between seniors and Baby Boomers, Gen X’ers and Millennials is actually a result of the timing of technological influences on their respective lives.

Consumer facing companies must shape their research very differently to understand how generations in each phase perceive the offering. Most of the research today falls in the adaptive phase which for many companies is their core segment. It is important however, to understand for younger segments not the willingness to adapt but how it could fit in defining their baseline. Similarly, for older segments it is important to measure the strength of their resistance.

Tungle - Meetings made easy [well at least scheduling them]

If you work in a company that has some type of meeting scheduling capability and you meet predominantly with other people in that company, then Tungle is not for you. If on the other hand you are like me, setting up meetings with people from lots of different companies, then Tungle is a wonderful tool. Tungle has a plug-in for Outlook and works with Google Calendars to tap into your current appointments and availability. The magic in Tungle is that it stops the email string of, "when is each of you available?" and the back and forth that always seems to follow.

For example, I have an email suggesting a meeting with a partner and two other companies early next week. With the email selected I simply click on the Tungle button in Outlook and my Tungle page opens in my browser already populated with the email addresses from the original message. The Tungle page has my calendar with all my appointments. I simply add some info about the meeting, in this case a one hour conference call. I can how select windows of time that are available on my calendar. Then I send the Tungle invite. One nice thing is that my invitees do not need to sign-up for Tungle to respond for my meeting. They receive an email with a link to the meeting invite page and they select from the available times. The great news is that it is always up to date with the respondents availability so what you see is what is available based on everyone who has responded so far. If an invitee finds there are no available times that work they indicate that and the process begins again. Once the time is nailed down I can send the meeting notice with the details.

There is also a "Meet with me" capability that provides a personal link for someone to access to schedule a meeting with you. It shows your "busy" versus "available time based on your settings. I haven't found a need for this capability.

I use a Blackberry and can respond by opening the link but I would love to see a native app. Tungle is a free app that I highly recommend giving a try.